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| Photo by freestocks on Unsplash |
The great thing about January, other than it drawing Christmas to a close, is that lazy bloggers like me can get an easy five hundred words out of their New Year's resolutions and the life-enhancing changes they are planning to make in the coming months. My resolution for 2024 is that I am not going to be a lazy blogger so I won’t be doing that. Instead, now that we are halfway through the football season, I am going to disclose the selection process behind my tips and how profitable they have been to date.
Each week since Saturday 5 August 2023 I have been tipping a football-based win double. These days I bet almost exclusively on football. As much as I love horse racing, the “custodians” of the game are doing it no favours plus I no longer have the free time to put the study in. Also, if I back a horse and it makes a mistake or gets no luck in running, that is usually that whereas the extended duration of a football match always offers a losing team the possibility of redemption. I have a lot of bets per week, the double just being one of them, but if viewed in isolation there are lessons to be learnt from it.
Selecting the teams I bet on does not require an encyclopaedic knowledge of football, just adherence to several factors (albeit none are written in stone).
Firstly, I am usually looking to back two teams that are priced odds on (i.e. less than evens). I will explain the reason for this presently, but doing so also filters out a lot of games where the protagonists are priced odds against. I am looking to make life easy for myself wherever possible.
Next, I am usually looking to back teams with recent winning form, rather than relying on league tables which can often be misleading. For example, at the time of writing (not the date of posting) Stockport are top of League Two but their current form reads Draw Draw Win Win Draw Draw which would place them eighth had the competition started six games ago. The leaders on recent form would be MK Dons (Win Draw Win Win Win Win) who are sixth in the table.
Conversely the opposition should be out of form.
I am usually looking to favour teams that are playing at home - even better if the opposition has had to travel from one end of the country to the other - but local derby games are best avoided as form can fly out of the window (this has previously sunk one of my recommended doubles). I am also wary of matches where there has been a recent managerial change.
And that’s it! Hardly rocket science I’m sure you will agree.
Although the teams would not be worth backing individually at odds on, combining them in a win double will usually pay over evens due to the cumulative odds. Therefore, if I have a 50% strike rate on my bets, which has so far been the case, I will always be making a profit over time as I am effectively flipping a coin with one side slightly weighted over the other.
Since August I have recommended twenty bets, each comprising a “hypothetical” £20 win double on the weekend’s football, a total investment of £400. Ten of the bets have won, ten of the bets have lost, returning £503.06 for a profit of £103.06 after deduction of stake, a return on investment of 25.765% (albeit one based on me stumping up £400, whereas to date I have only actually stumped up £79.86 as I have been betting with Sky Bet’s money for fourteen of those twenty bets).
I trust the above demonstrates that there is method to my madness and that hopefully I (we) can add another ton to the profit before the end of the 2023/2024 season. You never know.
“Happy New Year (Xmas is over). Give betting a chance.”
Not my words, but the words of the late singer, songwriter and musician John Lennon. At least that’s who he claimed to be when we were stood next to each other in the checkout queue at Primark. I asked him if he had any resolutions for the New Year - it appears I am a lazy blogger after all - and he said “Eat less, exercise more, treat everyone like you would want to be treated yourself, especially on Facebook, and always back the top weight over five furlongs.” Wise words from John I'm sure we'd all agree.
Mansfield Town (4/9) made the best possible start to 2024 by beating league “leaders” (see above) Stockport County 2-0. This was also a potentially tricky away win and with two games in hand the Stags are effectively the top team in League Two right now. On Saturday at three pm they host Crewe Alexandra, a team superficially in contention for a play-off place but eighteenth in the table on recent form (Mansfield would be third). With Stockport (and Wrexham) not playing until Saturday 13, the Stags have their opportunity to go top of the league and if ever a team needed motivation that’s it right there.
If I had to pick my favourite team currently, both to watch and bet on, it would be Juventus (1/2). They just get the job done, usually by a single goal, week in week out. On Sunday at five pm they are away to Salernitana who are bottom of Serie A (although, hint of caution, they would be mid-table on recent form). Juventus are second in the league (and second on recent form) and will be expected to win this game if they are to keep the pressure on Inter Milan in the title race. I did say the factors aren't written in stone. My last tip of 2023 was a winner (Stockport County 2-1 - they were playing Notts County - and Wrexham 2-0) and hopefully my first tip of 2024 will be a winner too.
My “hypothetical” £20 win double on Mansfield Town and Juventus currently returns £43.33 with Sky Bet at combined odds of 1.17/1 for a profit of £23.33 after deduction of stake.
I hope to see you next time.
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