Rainbows. Once upon a time, if you saw a rainbow you would take a moment to stop and marvel at it. “Look out the window, there’s a rainbow!” I think I’ve seen three already this week. There’s either a lot of gold out there or a ton of moisture in the air thanks to all the rain we've been having. In reality rainbows do not exist, they are merely optical illusions created by the interaction of water and light in the atmosphere. The same can more or less be said about this blog, it’s just a string of ones and zeros. Both are beautiful in their own right, but one is slightly more illusionary than the other. Where am I going with this? I haven’t a clue. I have a free half hour on a Wednesday afternoon and recently I have chosen to spend it writing about gambling. But not for much longer.
Dictionary.com describes gambling as “the act or practice of risking the loss of something important by taking a chance or acting recklessly” and I would say that pretty much nails the definition for most people. Over the course of the last three months I hope I have demonstrated that a profit, however modest, can be made from BETTING if certain rules and consistent stakes are applied. This is the complete opposite of "taking a chance and acting recklessly." In previous blogs I have been guilty of using the G-word, but going forward my preference will now be for the B-word. A lot of media attention lately has been given over to problem gambling, which has been somewhat disproportionate to the size of the actual issue and dismissive of people like me for whom betting has not been the bane of their existence. I have been betting for about forty years and it has been there for me during the good times and the bad; indeed the distraction it provides has kept me sane at times. My gambling days are over but my betting days are not.
As I appear to be in “lecture” mode, and - spoiler! - in light of last weekend’s losing double, it may be apposite to have a quick word about variance. Variance, at least the betting version of it, is the uncertainty attached to a bet or series of bets. To put it another way, you can’t win them all! Once embraced, the concept of variance is quite liberating in that losing bets become part of the process rather than the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune they often seem. And, as long as we learn from our mistakes and stick to proven strategies, the amount of variance we experience should reduce over time. The cure for problem gambling is discipline and doing research, not making it harder for adults to have a bet. To quote the American film producer Samuel Goldwyn, “The harder I work, the luckier I get.” However, there are some results you just can’t mitigate for and last weekend’s recommended win double was a case in point, with both Wolverhampton Wanderers and Liverpool failing to beat inferior league opposition. Wolves lost 2-1 to Sheffield United whilst it took Liverpool ninety-five minutes to avoid the ignominy of losing to Luton (final score 1-1). It was a weekend that both teams will want to forget, as well as Luton who came so close to a memorable victory.
This week I bumped into the English musician and actor, Sting, who was doing his weekly shop in Oak Tree Tesco. “Don’t stand so close to me,” he snapped, which was only fair as I had literally bumped into him. When he finally calmed down - I suspect he has issues despite all that tantric nonsense - it became apparent that he is a big fan of the blog, but when I asked him if he had any tips for the weekend, “De do do do de da da da” was all he wanted to say to me.
Shall I get on with it?
Last Saturday Wrexham (8/11) took on Mansfield Town in the First Round of the FA Cup. The game took place at Field Mill, which I think I’ve said before is just down the road from me. As I’m not a fan of either side I didn’t attend, but as a fan of football I did watch it on S4C complete with Welsh language commentary! "Blah blah blah Nigel Clough blah blah blah Paul Mullin blah blah blah GOAL!" I think it is fair to say that from the ten minute mark onwards Wrexham bossed the game, which was not entirely reflected in the final scoreline (1-2). On Saturday afternoon at three pm Wrexham welcome Gillingham to The Racecourse Ground, who have lost four of their last six league games. One of those defeats was at home to Notts County (1-2), who themselves recently lost at home to Wrexham (0-2). The selection picks itself. Why? Because “I’ve danced with a man who danced with a girl, who’s danced with the Prince of Wales.”
Juventus (1/3) are amazing. They are the only team on the planet that can go 0-1 up after ten minutes away from home then park the bus for the next eighty plus minutes and still be entertaining, as they did last Sunday against Fiorentina. Fiorentina are a decent side, so Juve’s Saturday five pm home fixture to lowly Cagliari should be, variance notwithstanding, banker material.
My “hypothetical” £20 win double on Wrexham and Juventus currently returns £46.06 with Sky Bet at combined odds of 1.3/1 for a profit of £26.06 after deduction of stake. You never know.
I hope to see you next week.
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