The capitulation of last Saturday’s selections was a mere hors d’oeuvres compared to Sunday’s main course of misery. But more of that later.
I have been on leave this week and on Monday I found myself strolling around Notts County’s training ground. Actually it was Bransby Horses Rescue and Welfare in Lincolnshire but it may as well have been County’s training ground given the number of donkeys on display. If you like horses and are ever near Lincoln it’s definitely worth a visit and a free day out if you can resist the cafe and gift shop, although I have yet to manage this.
Later in the week I went into Mansfield and found myself walking through the Four Seasons Shopping Centre (I know what you’re thinking, this guy rocks a week off work). If you want to experience the post apocalypse, ten minutes spent wandering around the Four Seasons will provide this. I was there to renew my driving licence at the Post Office, which now exists in reduced circumstances as part of WHSmith, and was the only customer behind a man hoping to buy £600 worth of South Korean won but who may as well have been planning to visit North Korea given the response his request was met with. When my turn came I was dealt with by a lady who didn’t crack a smile and barely said a word. As part of the renewal process I had to have my photograph taken, at which point two old ladies arrived and stood there tutting as if I was a criminal posing for a mug shot. When I was shown the photograph it depicted a saggy-jowled middle-aged man and not the Brad Pitt look-alike I was hoping for. It must have been the lighting.
I’ve put it off long enough, let’s review last week’s action.
At the end of last season I made a promise to myself that I would be professional and not start betting on the outcome of football matches until at least October. It takes a while for the form to settle down and in the meantime there is plenty of horse racing for the habitual punter to go at. But the summer has been a washout - last Saturday’s Stewards’ Cup on heavy going may as well have been the November handicap - and the start of the new football season suddenly seemed less daunting a challenge than it previously had. And I did have two bankers - what could possibly go wrong?
Last week I said Notts County’s return to the English Football League was an opportunity for them and their fans to draw a line in the sand and look to the future with renewed optimism, but in typical Notts fashion that optimism lasted all of two minutes before they were 1-0 down and then one man down thirteen minutes after that. It got worse. When the final whistle blew Notts were 5-1 losers and, as starts to new seasons go, this was as good as it gets for their opponents Sutton United.
Stockport County faired better, but still not enough to avoid a 0-1 home defeat to Gillingham and it was a strange start to League Two with the top three favourites for promotion all losing (including Wrexham, who prior to kick off would have dreamed of scoring three goals in their opening game at home, but not conceding five to the opposition). If evidence were needed why football betting should be avoided at the start of the season, there you have it. -£20.
On Sunday it was the Charity Shield and treble-winning Manchester City were playing Premier League-bottlers Arsenal. City had played and lost the last two Charity Shields (to Leicester 1-0 in 2021 and Liverpool 3-1 in 2022) and before the game manager Pep Guardiola sounded pretty bullish that his team would not make it a hat-trick of defeats. On the same afternoon Newcastle United were playing Spanish side Villarreal in a friendly at St. James’ Park and I was equally bullish that Eddie Howe and his men would be looking to send a message of intent to their Premier League rivals with this game. By my humble standards I had a decent bet on the double.
On ninety minutes all was going swimmingly with United winning 4-0 and City 1-0 up (although in fairness Arsenal had looked the better of the two sides). Alarm bells began to ring when eight minutes of additional time flashed up on the fourth official’s board, and when they had played two minutes longer than this I decided it might be prudent to cash out for the three-figure sum available. As my finger procrastinated over the cash out button, the amount changed from a three-figure sum to a one-figure sum and thanks to the broadcast delay I was able to look up from my phone to the TV to see Arsenal equalise on one hundred and one minutes of play (of a ninety-minute game, and three minutes over the eight minutes of extra time allocated). The Gunners went on to win 4-1 on penalties and I could have crushed a grape, but “Them’s the breaks” as someone whose name I care to forget recently said.
Every betting day is a learning day and last Sunday I learnt that additional (or stoppage) time is going to be an issue this season. I don’t cash out normally - like each-way betting, it only exists because it works in the long-term favour of the bookmaker, otherwise they wouldn’t offer it - but going forward if one of my football bets is winning but only by a single goal I may be cashing out as soon as the clock hits ninety (or earlier depending on the amount available).
As far as this blog is concerned I am £20 down which I need to recoup and this week’s double will hopefully do just that (and then some).
Earlier in the week I backed Sunday’s winners Arsenal and Newcastle in a double, and I thought this would also be my next tip (the bet still pays slightly more than evens with Sky Bet at combined odds of 1.04/1) but after the disappointment of my first recommendation I need a slightly better return than that. I am sticking with Newcastle United (3/4) to beat Aston Villa but ditching Arsenal in favour of League One’s finest Bolton Wanderers (19/20), who appear to have kept last season’s excellent form going and will be confident of enjoying their first away win of the new season at Cheltenham. At the time of writing, my “hypothetical” £20 double returns £68.25 at combined odds of 2.41/1 for a profit of £48.25 on the day and £28.25 since the start of the blog.
You never know. I hope to see you next week.
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